When Wake Forest has the ball

With a few notable exceptions — like Darrius Heyward-Bey’s game-changing 76-yard reverse — Clemson’s defense played well against Maryland with hard hitting and good tackling. But its stats put it in the middle of the ACC’s pack, and it’ll be challenged tonight by Wake Forest and quarterback Riley Skinner. Skinner averages 243.5 passing yards per game, tops in the ACC, and has a solid No.1 target in wideout D.J. Boldin (who averages 69 ypg). Josh Adams is a talented tailback, but the Demon Deacons’ rush offense has struggled this year, averaging 84.8 yards per game, 11th in the ACC. Wake still runs just enough option to keep defenses honest, too, which could be a concern for Clemson’s inexperienced linebacker group.

Advantage: Wake Forest

When Clemson has the ball

Clemson absolutely dominated the first half of the Maryland game, taking a 17-6 lead while James Davis and C.J. Spiller combined for nearly 200 yards rushing. But the ground game took a backseat after halftime — partially because of penalties that created long-yardage situations, partially because of poor play calling — and the Tigers went scoreless the rest of the way. Davis and Spiller have thrived against the Deacons in the past, and Wake allows 148 yards per game rushing, ninth in the ACC. Wake’s pass defense is second in the ACC, led by star cornerback Alphonso Smith. Clemson’s downfield passing game has struggled this season; wideout Aaron Kelly has yet to catch a touchdown through five games.

Advantage: Clemson

Special teams

Wake Forest’s Sam Swank is the ACC’s top kicker/punter; he has made 10 of 13 field goals this season and averages 37.6 yards per punt. Alphonso Smith is sixth in the ACC in punt return average, averaging 7.1 yards per return. C.J. Spiller and Jacoby Ford are among the league’s most dangerous return men; Spiller returned a kick 90 yards for a touchdown against the Deacs last season. Kicker Mark Buchholz has yet to miss a field goal or PAT this season, and punters Jimmy Maners and Dawson Zimmerman continue to push each other; it’s unclear which kicker will punt tonight.

Advantage: Even

The bottom line

Tonight looms as the biggest game of the season, for several reasons. Thanks to Maryland’s loss at Virginia, a win would put Clemson right back into the Atlantic Division race in control of its own destiny; Wake Forest is the only division team without an ACC loss. A loss could all but end the Tigers’ hopes, though, since Clemson would have to win the rest of its ACC games and hope Wake and Maryland lost three league games apiece. Thursday night has never been kind to Tommy Bowden, and neither has BB&T Field. And the Demon Deacons should be angry after 12 days to stew about a home upset loss to Navy. Clemson will put up a spirited fight tonight, but that might not be enough.

Prediction: Wake Forest 24, Clemson 21